Canada vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 55.1%draw 3.0%41.9% RomaniaRomania 65.8%draw 3.0%31.2% CanadaCanada 43.1%draw 3.0%53.9% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Romania, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Romania and 27 Canada, half of them between 5 Romania and 14 Canada, with the middle run at 2 Canada.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Canada are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Romania.
Canada 1255, Romania 1265 — 10 points, favouring Romania
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada3–0–8Romania11 meetings, 1991 to 2025 · Romania by 0.1 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Romania by 0.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | Romania 31–21 Canada | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2024-11-16 | Romania 35–27 Canada | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2024-07-13 | Canada 35–22 Romania | — | Ottawa |
| 2017-06-17 | Canada 9–25 Romania | — | Ellerslie Park, Edmonton |
| 2016-11-19 | Romania 21–16 Canada | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.