Canada vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 50.6%draw 2.7%46.7% RomaniaRomania 66.0%draw 2.7%31.3% CanadaCanada 40.9%draw 2.7%56.4% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Romania and 23 Canada, with the middle run at 1 Canada.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Canada are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours Romania.
Canada 661, Romania 788 — 126 points, favouring Romania
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada3–0–5Romania8 meetings, 1991 to 2025 · Canada by 1.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | Romania 31–21 Canada | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2024-11-16 | Romania 35–27 Canada | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2024-07-13 | Canada 35–22 Romania | — | Ottawa |
| 2017-06-17 | Canada 9–25 Romania | — | Ellerslie Park, Edmonton |
| 2016-11-19 | Romania 21–16 Canada | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.