Canada vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 75.8%draw 2.2%22.0% RussiaRussia 39.7%draw 2.1%58.2% CanadaCanada 67.1%draw 2.1%30.8% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Russia and 30 Canada, with the middle run at 7 Canada.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Canada are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours Russia.
Canada 661, Russia 425 — 236 points, favouring Canada
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada1–0–1Russia2 meetings, 2016 to 2018 · Canada by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-06-16 | Canada 20–43 Russia | — | Twin Elm Park, Winnipeg |
| 2016-06-18 | Canada 46–21 Russia | — | Calgary Rugby Park |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.