Canada vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 75.7%draw 2.7%21.6% RussiaRussia 41.0%draw 2.8%56.2% CanadaCanada 67.4%draw 2.8%29.8% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Russia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Russia and 42 Canada, half of them between 1 Canada and 27 Canada, with the middle run at 11 Canada.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Canada are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Russia.
Canada 1255, Russia 1137 — 118 points, favouring Canada
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada4–0–1Russia5 meetings, 2009 to 2018 · Canada by 13.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-06-16 | Canada 20–43 Russia | — | Twin Elm Park, Winnipeg |
| 2016-06-18 | Canada 46–21 Russia | — | Calgary Rugby Park |
| 2012-11-17 | Canada 35–3 Russia | — | Parc Eirias(neutral) |
| 2011-06-08 | Russia 18–34 Canada | — | Molesey Road(neutral) |
| 2009-11-28 | Canada 22–6 Russia | — | Swanguard Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.