Canada vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 4.5%94.5% ScotlandScotland 97.3%1.7% CanadaCanada 3.0%96.0% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Scotland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 55 Scotland and 2 Scotland, half of them between 39 Scotland and 8 Scotland, with the middle run at 20 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 39 and 89 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 35-15 on a tight afternoon and 48-28 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Scotland.
Canada 1255, Scotland 2193 — 938 points, favouring Scotland
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada2–0–5Scotland7 meetings, 1991 to 2024 · Scotland by 21.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-06 | Canada 12–73 Scotland | — | TD Place |
| 2018-06-10 | Canada 10–48 Scotland | — | Commonwealth Stadium |
| 2014-06-14 | Canada 17–19 Scotland | — | BMO Field |
| 2008-11-22 | Scotland 41–0 Canada | — | — |
| 2002-06-15 | Canada 26–23 Scotland | — | Thunderbird Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.