Canada vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 3.9%95.1% South AfricaSouth Africa 95.5%3.5% CanadaCanada 3.7%95.3% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 53 South Africa and 2 South Africa, with the middle run at 22 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-12 on a tight afternoon and 47-25 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours South Africa.
Canada 661, South Africa 2036 — 1375 points, favouring South Africa
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada0–0–2South Africa2 meetings, 1995 to 2019 · South Africa by 39.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-08 | South Africa 66–7 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Kobe Misaki Stadium |
| 1995-06-03 | South Africa 20–0 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Boet Erasmus (EPRFU) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.