Canada vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 3.1%95.9% South AfricaSouth Africa 97.9%1.1% CanadaCanada 2.1%96.9% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v South Africa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 57 South Africa and 3 South Africa, half of them between 40 South Africa and 9 South Africa, with the middle run at 22 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 42 and 96 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 37-15 on a tight afternoon and 52-30 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
Canada 1255, South Africa 2512 — 1257 points, favouring South Africa
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada0–0–3South Africa3 meetings, 1995 to 2019 · South Africa by 37.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-08 | South Africa 66–7 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Kobe Misaki Stadium |
| 2000-06-10 | South Africa 51–18 Canada | — | Waverley Park |
| 1995-06-03 | South Africa 20–0 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Boet Erasmus (EPRFU) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.