Canada vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 21.6%draw 1.1%77.3% SpainSpain 79.7%draw 1.1%19.2% CanadaCanada 20.3%draw 1.1%78.6% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 33 Spain and 14 Canada, with the middle run at 8 Spain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-17 on a tight afternoon and 36-28 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours Spain.
Canada 661, Spain 1064 — 403 points, favouring Spain
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada1–0–2Spain3 meetings, 2017 to 2025 · Spain by 4.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Canada 23–24 Spain | — | Clarke Stadium |
| 2023-11-11 | Spain 42–20 Canada | — | Estadio El Pantano |
| 2017-11-18 | Spain 27–37 Canada | — | Estadio Nacional Complutense |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.