Canada vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 31.6%draw 1.7%66.7% SpainSpain 83.1%draw 1.7%15.2% CanadaCanada 23.1%draw 1.7%75.2% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Spain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Spain and 16 Canada, half of them between 13 Spain and 4 Canada, with the middle run at 4 Spain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-19 on a tight afternoon and 35-31 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Spain.
Canada 1255, Spain 1566 — 311 points, favouring Spain
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada2–1–3Spain6 meetings, 2010 to 2026 · Canada by 0.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Canada 42–42 Spain | — | Clarke Stadium |
| 2025-07-19 | Canada 23–24 Spain | — | Clarke Stadium |
| 2023-11-11 | Spain 42–20 Canada | — | Estadio El Pantano |
| 2022-07-10 | Canada 34–57 Spain | — | TD Place Stadium |
| 2017-11-18 | Spain 27–37 Canada | — | Estadio Nacional Complutense |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.