Canada vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 38.1%draw 2.4%59.5% TongaTonga 79.7%draw 2.4%17.9% CanadaCanada 27.8%draw 2.3%69.9% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Tonga and 14 Canada, half of them between 10 Tonga and 4 Canada, with the middle run at 2 Tonga.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-20 on a tight afternoon and 33-31 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Canada 1255, Tonga 1454 — 199 points, favouring Tonga
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada5–0–8Tonga13 meetings, 1974 to 2025 · Tonga by 3.5 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Tonga by 4.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-20 | Tonga 35–24 Canada | — | America First Field(neutral) |
| 2024-09-15 | Tonga 30–17 Canada | — | Tokyo(neutral) |
| 2023-08-15 | Tonga 36–12 Canada | — | Teufaiva Stadium |
| 2023-08-10 | Tonga 28–3 Canada | — | Teufaiva Stadium |
| 2019-08-09 | Tonga 33–23 Canada | — | Churchill Park(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.