Canada vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 37.9%draw 1.9%60.2% TongaTonga 77.6%draw 1.9%20.5% CanadaCanada 30.8%draw 1.9%67.3% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Tonga and 16 Canada, with the middle run at 3 Tonga.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours Tonga.
Canada 661, Tonga 938 — 276 points, favouring Tonga
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada3–0–3Tonga6 meetings, 1987 to 2024 · Tonga by 1.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | Tonga 30–17 Canada | — | Tokyo(neutral) |
| 2023-08-15 | Tonga 36–12 Canada | — | Teufaiva Stadium |
| 2023-08-10 | Tonga 28–3 Canada | — | Teufaiva Stadium |
| 2011-09-14 | Tonga 20–25 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Semenoff Stadium(neutral) |
| 2003-10-29 | Tonga 7–24 Canada | Rugby World Cup | WIN Stadium(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.