Canada vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 39.7%draw 2.0%58.3% UruguayUruguay 81.3%draw 2.0%16.7% CanadaCanada 28.0%draw 2.0%70.0% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Uruguay and 15 Canada, half of them between 13 Uruguay and 5 Canada, with the middle run at 2 Uruguay.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Canada 1255, Uruguay 1520 — 265 points, favouring Uruguay
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada8–0–5Uruguay13 meetings, 1995 to 2019 · Canada by 10.6 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Canada by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-02-02 | Uruguay 20–17 Canada | — | Estadio Charrúa |
| 2018-02-03 | Uruguay 32–31 Canada | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2018-01-27 | Canada 29–38 Uruguay | — | BC Place |
| 2017-02-25 | Uruguay 17–13 Canada | — | Campus Municipal de Maldonado |
| 2016-02-06 | Canada 33–17 Uruguay | — | Canadian Rugby Centre of Excellence |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.