Cardiff Blues vs Connacht
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 54.5%draw 2.5%43.0% ConnachtConnacht 80.7%draw 2.5%16.8% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 35.1%draw 2.5%62.4% ConnachtEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Connacht, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Connacht and 21 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 6 Connacht and 11 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 1 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 18-17 on a tight afternoon and 28-27 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Connacht.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Connacht 1783 — 138 points, favouring Connacht
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues8–0–11Connacht19 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Connacht by 3.7 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Connacht by 5.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Cardiff Blues 14–8 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2025-04-05 | Connacht 35–20 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2025-02-15 | Connacht 24–19 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2025-01-17 | Cardiff Blues 19–28 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-02-17 | Cardiff Blues 12–16 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.