Cardiff Blues vs Connacht
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 48.2%draw 2.5%49.3% ConnachtConnacht 68.3%draw 2.5%29.2% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 38.4%draw 2.5%59.1% ConnachtEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Connacht and 15 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Connacht.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Connacht 1752 — 178 points, favouring Connacht
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues8–0–11Connacht19 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Connacht by 3.7 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Connacht by 5.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Cardiff Blues 14–8 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2025-04-05 | Connacht 35–20 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2025-02-15 | Connacht 24–19 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2025-01-17 | Cardiff Blues 19–28 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-02-17 | Cardiff Blues 12–16 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.