Cardiff Blues vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 86.7%draw 2.5%10.8% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 27.3%draw 2.5%70.2% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 79.1%draw 2.5%18.4% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 41 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 4 Cardiff Blues and 27 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 13 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-15 on a tight afternoon and 40-27 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 605 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues3–0–0Newcastle Falcons3 meetings, 2020 to 2023 · Cardiff Blues by 27.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-15 | Cardiff Blues 42–10 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2022-12-17 | Newcastle Falcons 10–47 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2020-12-11 | Newcastle Falcons 20–33 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.