Cardiff Blues vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Ospreys host Cardiff Blues on Saturday 31 October at St Helen's Rugby and Cricket Ground, Swansea, so Ospreys are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Cardiff Blues 66.6%draw 2.5%30.9% OspreysOspreys 59.1%draw 2.5%38.4% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 52.8%draw 2.5%44.7% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ospreys v Cardiff Blues, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Cardiff Blues and 19 Ospreys, half of them between 6 Cardiff Blues and 10 Ospreys, with the middle run at 2 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-17 on a tight afternoon and 29-27 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ospreys winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ospreys, a bar to the left helps Cardiff Blues.
Ospreys 1567, Cardiff Blues 1645 — 78 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues6–1–15Ospreys22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ospreys by 2.6 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Ospreys by 0.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Cardiff Blues 24–21 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2026-01-01 | Ospreys 33–22 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2025-04-19 | Ospreys 19–36 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Principality Stadium |
| 2025-01-01 | Cardiff Blues 13–13 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-06-01 | Cardiff Blues 29–33 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff City Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.