Cardiff Blues vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 70.6%draw 2.5%26.9% OspreysOspreys 54.7%draw 2.5%42.8% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 56.9%draw 2.5%40.6% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Ospreys and 28 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 6 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Ospreys.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Ospreys 1470 — 104 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues6–1–14Ospreys21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ospreys by 2.1 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Ospreys by 0.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Cardiff Blues 24–21 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2026-01-01 | Ospreys 33–22 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2025-04-19 | Ospreys 19–36 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Principality Stadium |
| 2025-01-01 | Cardiff Blues 13–13 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-06-01 | Cardiff Blues 29–33 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff City Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.