Cardiff Blues vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 64.6%draw 2.5%32.9% UlsterUlster 64.9%draw 2.5%32.6% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 47.9%draw 2.5%49.6% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Ulster and 22 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 4 Ulster and 12 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 4 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-16 on a tight afternoon and 30-26 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Ulster 1582 — 63 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues4–1–10Ulster15 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ulster by 6.0 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Ulster by 6.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Ulster 21–14 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2025-12-13 | Cardiff Blues 29–26 Ulster | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-10-26 | Cardiff Blues 21–19 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-04-19 | Ulster 19–17 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-03-04 | Cardiff Blues 20–42 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.