Cardiff Blues vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 47.6%draw 2.5%49.9% UlsterUlster 65.2%draw 2.5%32.3% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 39.4%draw 2.5%58.1% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Ulster and 15 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 1 Ulster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Ulster.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Ulster 1633 — 60 points, favouring Ulster
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues4–1–9Ulster14 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Ulster by 5.9 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Ulster by 5.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Cardiff Blues 29–26 Ulster | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-10-26 | Cardiff Blues 21–19 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-04-19 | Ulster 19–17 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-03-04 | Cardiff Blues 20–42 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2022-03-04 | Ulster 48–12 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.