Castres Olympique vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 77.8%draw 2.5%19.7% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 41.0%draw 2.5%56.5% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 66.1%draw 2.5%31.4% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Newcastle Falcons and 35 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 10 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Castres Olympique 1485, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 310 points, favouring Castres Olympique
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique0–0–1Newcastle Falcons1 meeting, 2020 to 2020 · Newcastle Falcons by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-18 | Castres Olympique 17–26 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.