Castres Olympique vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 58.4%draw 2.5%39.1% OspreysOspreys 65.1%draw 2.5%32.4% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 45.4%draw 2.5%52.1% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Ospreys and 24 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 3 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Ospreys.
Castres Olympique 1485, Ospreys 1470 — 15 points, favouring Castres Olympique
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique0–0–1Ospreys1 meeting, 2020 to 2020 · Ospreys by 24.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-12 | Ospreys 39–15 Castres Olympique | European Challenge Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.