Cheetahs vs Connacht
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cheetahs 31.6%draw 2.5%65.9% ConnachtConnacht 85.8%draw 2.5%11.7% CheetahsCheetahs 20.8%draw 2.5%76.7% ConnachtEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cheetahs v Connacht, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 26 Connacht and 11 Cheetahs, half of them between 15 Connacht and 3 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 5 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-29 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cheetahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cheetahs, a bar to the left helps Connacht.
Cheetahs 1270, Connacht 1783 — 514 points, favouring Connacht
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs1–0–4Connacht5 meetings, 2017 to 2019 · Connacht by 4.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-26 | Connacht 24–22 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2019-02-16 | Connacht 25–17 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2018-12-01 | Cheetahs 17–21 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2018-03-03 | Cheetahs 26–25 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2017-11-04 | Connacht 23–15 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.