Cheetahs vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cheetahs 36.2%draw 2.5%61.3% OspreysOspreys 82.0%draw 2.5%15.5% CheetahsCheetahs 25.1%draw 2.5%72.4% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cheetahs v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Ospreys and 14 Cheetahs, half of them between 12 Ospreys and 5 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 3 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cheetahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cheetahs, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Cheetahs 1270, Ospreys 1567 — 298 points, favouring Ospreys
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs2–0–3Ospreys5 meetings, 2017 to 2019 · Ospreys by 5.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-11-30 | Ospreys 13–18 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | The Gnoll |
| 2019-04-06 | Cheetahs 14–31 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2018-09-08 | Ospreys 46–14 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2018-02-24 | Ospreys 27–26 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2017-09-29 | Cheetahs 44–25 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.