Cheetahs vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 42.2%draw 2.5%55.3% OspreysOspreys 74.8%draw 2.5%22.7% CheetahsCheetahs 32.2%draw 2.5%65.3% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Ospreys and 15 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 2 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Ospreys.
Cheetahs 1260, Ospreys 1470 — 210 points, favouring Ospreys
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs1–0–3Ospreys4 meetings, 2017 to 2019 · Ospreys by 7.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-06 | Cheetahs 14–31 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2018-09-08 | Ospreys 46–14 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2018-02-24 | Ospreys 27–26 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2017-09-29 | Cheetahs 44–25 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.