Cheetahs vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 28.9%draw 2.5%68.6% UlsterUlster 77.5%draw 2.5%20.0% CheetahsCheetahs 26.0%draw 2.5%71.5% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Ulster and 13 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 5 Ulster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-29 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Ulster.
Cheetahs 1260, Ulster 1633 — 374 points, favouring Ulster
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs1–1–3Ulster5 meetings, 2017 to 2026 · Ulster by 4.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Cheetahs 0–28 Ulster | European Challenge Cup | Rugbyclub The Dukes |
| 2020-02-22 | Ulster 20–10 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2019-10-05 | Cheetahs 63–26 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2018-09-21 | Cheetahs 39–39 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2017-09-01 | Ulster 42–19 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.