Chile vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Chile 24.4%draw 1.8%73.8% ItalyItaly 89.1%draw 1.8%9.1% ChileChile 14.9%draw 1.8%83.3% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Chile v Italy, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Italy and 11 Chile, half of them between 14 Italy and level, with the middle run at 5 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-29 on an open one.
Why Chile are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chile winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chile, a bar to the left helps Italy.
Chile 1530, Italy 1827 — 297 points, favouring Italy
Chile are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile0–0–1Italy1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Italy by 15.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Italy 34–19 Chile | — | Stadio Luigi Ferraris |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.