Chile vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Chile 65.2%draw 3.0%31.8% SamoaSamoa 61.1%draw 3.0%35.9% ChileChile 50.6%draw 3.0%46.4% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chile v Samoa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Samoa and 30 Chile, half of them between 4 Samoa and 16 Chile, with the middle run at 4 Chile.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Chile are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chile winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chile, a bar to the left helps Samoa.
Chile 1530, Samoa 1512 — 18 points, favouring Chile
Chile are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile1–1–1Samoa3 meetings, 2023 to 2025 · Samoa by 4.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Chile 31–12 Samoa | — | Estadio Sausalito |
| 2025-09-20 | Samoa 32–32 Chile | — | America First Field |
| 2023-09-16 | Samoa 43–10 Chile | Rugby World Cup | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.