Chile vs Samoa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Chile 67.5%draw 2.9%29.6% SamoaSamoa 43.8%draw 2.9%53.3% ChileChile 61.1%draw 3.0%35.9% SamoaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Samoa and 27 Chile, with the middle run at 4 Chile.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Chile are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Chile, negative favours Samoa.
Chile 1202, Samoa 1150 — 52 points, favouring Chile
Chile are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile1–1–1Samoa3 meetings, 2023 to 2025 · Samoa by 4.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Chile 31–12 Samoa | — | Estadio Sausalito |
| 2025-09-20 | Samoa 32–32 Chile | — | America First Field |
| 2023-09-16 | Samoa 43–10 Chile | Rugby World Cup | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.