Chile vs USA
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Chile 53.1%draw 3.0%43.9% USAUSA 68.1%draw 3.0%28.9% ChileChile 40.0%draw 3.0%57.0% USAEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Chile v USA, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Chile wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 USA and 24 Chile, half of them between 6 USA and 12 Chile, with the middle run at 1 Chile.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Chile are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Chile winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Chile, a bar to the left helps USA.
Chile 1530, USA 1537 — 8 points, favouring USA
Chile are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Chile2–0–6USA8 meetings, 2002 to 2022 · USA by 26.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-07-16 | USA 29–31 Chile | — | Infinity Park |
| 2022-07-09 | Chile 21–22 USA | — | Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK |
| 2019-02-02 | Chile 8–71 USA | — | Estadio Santiago Bueras |
| 2018-02-17 | USA 45–13 Chile | — | Titan Stadium |
| 2017-02-25 | Chile 9–57 USA | — | Univeridad Catolica Rugby Club |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.