Clermont Auvergne vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 78.2%draw 2.5%19.3% OspreysOspreys 44.8%draw 2.5%52.7% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 64.4%draw 2.5%33.1% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Ospreys and 35 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 10 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-25 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Clermont Auvergne, negative favours Ospreys.
Clermont Auvergne 1729, Ospreys 1470 — 259 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne3–0–1Ospreys4 meetings, 2015 to 2018 · Clermont Auvergne by 4.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-20 | Clermont Auvergne 24–7 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2017-10-15 | Ospreys 21–26 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2016-01-15 | Ospreys 21–13 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2015-11-22 | Clermont Auvergne 34–29 Ospreys | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.