Clermont Auvergne vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Clermont Auvergne 55.9%draw 2.5%41.6% UlsterUlster 69.9%draw 2.5%27.6% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 41.3%draw 2.5%56.2% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Clermont Auvergne v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Clermont Auvergne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Ulster and 18 Clermont Auvergne, half of them between 7 Ulster and 9 Clermont Auvergne, with the middle run at 1 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Clermont Auvergne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Clermont Auvergne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Clermont Auvergne, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Clermont Auvergne 1466, Ulster 1582 — 116 points, favouring Ulster
Clermont Auvergne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Clermont Auvergne3–0–4Ulster7 meetings, 2016 to 2024 · Clermont Auvergne by 7.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-13 | Clermont Auvergne 53–14 Ulster | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2022-01-22 | Ulster 34–31 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
| 2021-12-11 | Clermont Auvergne 23–29 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2020-01-11 | Clermont Auvergne 29–13 Ulster | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2019-11-22 | Ulster 18–13 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.