Connacht vs Dragons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 82.5%draw 2.5%15.0% DragonsDragons 36.6%draw 2.5%60.9% ConnachtConnacht 74.6%draw 2.5%22.9% DragonsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Dragons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Dragons and 31 Connacht, half of them between 2 Connacht and 20 Connacht, with the middle run at 9 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-25 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Dragons.
Connacht 1783, Dragons 1330 — 454 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht10–0–4Dragons14 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Connacht by 4.1 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Connacht by 4.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | Dragons 48–28 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-10-26 | Connacht 31–7 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-04-27 | Dragons 27–34 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2023-03-04 | Dragons 20–22 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2021-10-09 | Connacht 22–35 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.