Connacht vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 74.6%draw 2.5%22.9% EdinburghEdinburgh 44.9%draw 2.5%52.6% ConnachtConnacht 63.4%draw 2.5%34.1% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Edinburgh and 33 Connacht, with the middle run at 8 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Edinburgh.
Connacht 1752, Edinburgh 1496 — 256 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht5–0–8Edinburgh13 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Edinburgh by 3.9 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Edinburgh by 5.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Edinburgh 5–26 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2025-05-10 | Connacht 21–31 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-11-11 | Edinburgh 25–22 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2023-03-25 | Connacht 41–26 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2022-03-04 | Edinburgh 56–8 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.