Connacht vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 75.6%draw 2.5%21.9% EdinburghEdinburgh 53.5%draw 2.5%44.0% ConnachtConnacht 62.6%draw 2.5%34.9% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Edinburgh, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Edinburgh and 31 Connacht, half of them between level and 19 Connacht, with the middle run at 8 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-14 on a tight afternoon and 33-25 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Edinburgh.
Connacht 1783, Edinburgh 1528 — 255 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht6–0–8Edinburgh14 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Edinburgh by 2.7 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Edinburgh by 5.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Edinburgh 5–26 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2025-05-10 | Connacht 21–31 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-11-11 | Edinburgh 25–22 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2023-03-25 | Connacht 41–26 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2022-03-04 | Edinburgh 56–8 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.