Connacht vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 61.0%draw 2.5%36.5% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 65.4%draw 2.5%32.1% ConnachtConnacht 46.6%draw 2.5%50.9% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Exeter Chiefs and 23 Connacht, with the middle run at 3 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 30-27 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Exeter Chiefs.
Connacht 1752, Exeter Chiefs 1754 — 3 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht0–0–1Exeter Chiefs1 meeting, 2015 to 2015 · Exeter Chiefs by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-18 | Connacht 24–33 Exeter Chiefs | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.