Connacht vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 63.5%draw 2.5%34.0% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 56.8%draw 2.5%40.7% ConnachtConnacht 52.2%draw 2.5%45.3% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Exeter Chiefs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Exeter Chiefs and 25 Connacht, half of them between 4 Exeter Chiefs and 14 Connacht, with the middle run at 4 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Exeter Chiefs.
Connacht 1783, Exeter Chiefs 1716 — 67 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht0–0–1Exeter Chiefs1 meeting, 2015 to 2015 · Exeter Chiefs by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-18 | Connacht 24–33 Exeter Chiefs | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.