Connacht vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 56.4%draw 2.5%41.1% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 64.7%draw 2.5%32.8% ConnachtConnacht 44.5%draw 2.5%53.0% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Glasgow Warriors and 24 Connacht, with the middle run at 2 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Glasgow Warriors.
Connacht 1752, Glasgow Warriors 1792 — 40 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht4–0–12Glasgow Warriors16 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 7.9 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Glasgow Warriors by 7.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Glasgow Warriors 33–21 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2025-01-26 | Glasgow Warriors 22–19 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-10-28 | Connacht 34–26 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-04-22 | Glasgow Warriors 29–27 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2022-01-29 | Connacht 20–42 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.