Connacht vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 55.2%draw 2.5%42.3% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 74.1%draw 2.5%23.4% ConnachtConnacht 38.7%draw 2.5%58.8% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Glasgow Warriors and 19 Connacht, half of them between 7 Glasgow Warriors and 10 Connacht, with the middle run at 1 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 18-17 on a tight afternoon and 28-27 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Glasgow Warriors.
Connacht 1783, Glasgow Warriors 1949 — 166 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht5–0–13Glasgow Warriors18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 7.7 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Glasgow Warriors by 6.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Glasgow Warriors 36–19 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2026-05-29 | Glasgow Warriors 33–21 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2026-02-28 | Connacht 15–10 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2025-01-26 | Glasgow Warriors 22–19 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-10-28 | Connacht 34–26 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.