Connacht vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 65.6%draw 2.5%31.9% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 58.6%draw 2.5%38.9% ConnachtConnacht 49.7%draw 2.5%47.8% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Gloucester Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Gloucester Rugby and 21 Connacht, half of them between 4 Gloucester Rugby and 12 Connacht, with the middle run at 4 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Gloucester Rugby.
Connacht 1783, Gloucester Rugby 1684 — 99 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–3Gloucester Rugby4 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Gloucester Rugby by 4.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-12-14 | Connacht 27–24 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2019-12-08 | Gloucester Rugby 26–17 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2018-03-31 | Connacht 28–33 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2015-04-03 | Gloucester Rugby 14–7 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.