Connacht vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 70.0%draw 2.5%27.5% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 47.2%draw 2.5%50.3% ConnachtConnacht 61.1%draw 2.5%36.4% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Gloucester Rugby and 32 Connacht, with the middle run at 7 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Gloucester Rugby.
Connacht 1752, Gloucester Rugby 1520 — 232 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–2Gloucester Rugby3 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Gloucester Rugby by 4.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-12-14 | Connacht 27–24 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2019-12-08 | Gloucester Rugby 26–17 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2015-04-03 | Gloucester Rugby 14–7 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.