Connacht vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 68.9%draw 2.5%28.6% La RochelleLa Rochelle 57.5%draw 2.5%40.0% ConnachtConnacht 54.9%draw 2.5%42.6% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 La Rochelle and 25 Connacht, with the middle run at 5 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 31-26 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours La Rochelle.
Connacht 1752, La Rochelle 1748 — 4 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–0La Rochelle1 meeting, 2015 to 2015 · Connacht by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-24 | La Rochelle 20–30 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.