Connacht vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 63.0%draw 2.5%34.5% La RochelleLa Rochelle 64.8%draw 2.5%32.7% ConnachtConnacht 47.7%draw 2.5%49.8% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v La Rochelle, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 La Rochelle and 22 Connacht, half of them between 4 La Rochelle and 12 Connacht, with the middle run at 3 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps La Rochelle.
Connacht 1783, La Rochelle 1820 — 37 points, favouring La Rochelle
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–0La Rochelle1 meeting, 2015 to 2015 · Connacht by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-24 | La Rochelle 20–30 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.