Connacht vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 53.2%draw 2.5%44.3% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 70.4%draw 2.5%27.1% ConnachtConnacht 40.0%draw 2.5%57.5% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Leicester Tigers and 21 Connacht, with the middle run at 1 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Leicester Tigers.
Connacht 1752, Leicester Tigers 1840 — 88 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht0–0–3Leicester Tigers3 meetings, 2021 to 2022 · Leicester Tigers by 7.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-15 | Connacht 28–29 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2021-12-19 | Leicester Tigers 29–23 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2021-04-03 | Leicester Tigers 48–32 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.