Connacht vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 61.3%draw 2.5%36.2% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 60.7%draw 2.5%36.8% ConnachtConnacht 49.0%draw 2.5%48.5% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Leicester Tigers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Leicester Tigers and 23 Connacht, half of them between 5 Leicester Tigers and 13 Connacht, with the middle run at 3 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Leicester Tigers.
Connacht 1783, Leicester Tigers 1800 — 17 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht0–0–3Leicester Tigers3 meetings, 2021 to 2022 · Leicester Tigers by 7.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-15 | Connacht 28–29 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2021-12-19 | Leicester Tigers 29–23 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2021-04-03 | Leicester Tigers 48–32 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.