Connacht vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht host Leinster on Friday 30 October at Dexcom Stadium, Galway, so Connacht are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Connacht 52.7%draw 2.5%44.8% LeinsterLeinster 77.0%draw 2.5%20.5% ConnachtConnacht 36.1%draw 2.5%61.4% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Leinster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Leinster and 19 Connacht, half of them between 7 Leinster and 9 Connacht, with the middle run at 1 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 18-17 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Leinster.
Connacht 1783, Leinster 1915 — 132 points, favouring Leinster
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht4–0–20Leinster24 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Leinster by 13.7 on average
Last 10: 0–0–10 · Leinster by 18.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Connacht 23–34 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2026-01-03 | Leinster 52–17 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-12-21 | Leinster 20–12 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-10-19 | Connacht 12–33 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-05-31 | Leinster 33–7 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.