Connacht vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 49.5%draw 2.5%48.0% LeinsterLeinster 66.3%draw 2.5%31.2% ConnachtConnacht 40.2%draw 2.5%57.3% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Leinster and 24 Connacht, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Connacht are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Leinster.
Connacht 1752, Leinster 1912 — 160 points, favouring Leinster
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht4–0–19Leinster23 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Leinster by 13.1 on average
Last 10: 0–0–10 · Leinster by 19.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Connacht 23–34 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2026-01-03 | Leinster 52–17 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-12-21 | Leinster 20–12 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-10-19 | Connacht 12–33 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-12-02 | Connacht 22–24 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.