Connacht vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 68.5%draw 2.5%29.0% LionsLions 56.7%draw 2.5%40.8% ConnachtConnacht 53.8%draw 2.5%43.7% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Lions, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Lions and 26 Connacht, half of them between 2 Lions and 15 Connacht, with the middle run at 6 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-15 on a tight afternoon and 31-25 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Lions.
Connacht 1783, Lions 1664 — 119 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht2–0–3Lions5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Lions by 6.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Lions 33–21 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2025-04-26 | Lions 26–7 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-03-23 | Connacht 14–38 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-01-28 | Connacht 43–24 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2022-04-23 | Lions 30–33 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.