Connacht vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 66.0%draw 2.5%31.5% LionsLions 61.3%draw 2.5%36.2% ConnachtConnacht 51.2%draw 2.5%46.3% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Lions and 26 Connacht, with the middle run at 5 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Lions.
Connacht 1752, Lions 1678 — 73 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht2–0–3Lions5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Lions by 6.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Lions 33–21 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2025-04-26 | Lions 26–7 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-03-23 | Connacht 14–38 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-01-28 | Connacht 43–24 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2022-04-23 | Lions 30–33 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.