Connacht vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 80.5%draw 2.5%17.0% LyonLyon 39.4%draw 2.5%58.1% ConnachtConnacht 67.9%draw 2.5%29.6% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Lyon and 34 Connacht, with the middle run at 10 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Lyon.
Connacht 1752, Lyon 1429 — 323 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–1Lyon2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Connacht by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Connacht 52–24 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-01-13 | Lyon 34–20 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.