Connacht vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 56.5%draw 2.5%41.0% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 70.6%draw 2.5%26.9% ConnachtConnacht 42.3%draw 2.5%55.2% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Montpellier Herault and 21 Connacht, with the middle run at 2 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Montpellier Herault.
Connacht 1752, Montpellier Herault 1882 — 130 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–3Montpellier Herault4 meetings, 2019 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Montpellier Herault 45–22 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2026-01-11 | Montpellier Herault 33–31 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2020-01-19 | Montpellier Herault 35–29 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2019-11-17 | Connacht 23–20 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.