Connacht vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 47.0%draw 2.5%50.5% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 76.4%draw 2.5%21.1% ConnachtConnacht 33.4%draw 2.5%64.1% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Montpellier Herault and 17 Connacht, half of them between 8 Montpellier Herault and 8 Connacht, with the middle run at 1 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Connacht are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Connacht 1783, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 189 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–3Montpellier Herault4 meetings, 2019 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Montpellier Herault 45–22 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2026-01-11 | Montpellier Herault 33–31 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2020-01-19 | Montpellier Herault 35–29 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2019-11-17 | Connacht 23–20 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.