Connacht vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 64.2%draw 2.5%33.3% MunsterMunster 61.7%draw 2.5%35.8% ConnachtConnacht 48.9%draw 2.5%48.6% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Munster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Munster and 24 Connacht, half of them between 4 Munster and 14 Connacht, with the middle run at 4 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-16 on a tight afternoon and 30-26 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Munster.
Connacht 1783, Munster 1728 — 55 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht8–0–16Munster24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Munster by 5.6 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Munster by 1.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Connacht 26–7 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2025-10-25 | Munster 17–15 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2025-03-29 | Connacht 24–30 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Hastings Insurance MacHale Park |
| 2024-09-21 | Munster 35–33 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-05-11 | Munster 47–12 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.