Connacht vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 66.5%draw 2.5%31.0% MunsterMunster 58.1%draw 2.5%39.4% ConnachtConnacht 53.0%draw 2.5%44.5% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Munster and 27 Connacht, with the middle run at 5 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Munster.
Connacht 1752, Munster 1670 — 81 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht8–0–15Munster23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Munster by 5.5 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Munster by 1.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Connacht 26–7 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2025-10-25 | Munster 17–15 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2025-03-29 | Connacht 24–30 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Hastings Insurance MacHale Park |
| 2024-09-21 | Munster 35–33 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-05-11 | Munster 47–12 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.