Connacht vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 64.2%draw 2.5%33.3% PauPau 62.0%draw 2.5%35.5% ConnachtConnacht 53.0%draw 2.5%44.5% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Pau and 21 Connacht, half of them between 4 Pau and 11 Connacht, with the middle run at 4 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Connacht 1783, Pau 1818 — 35 points, favouring Pau
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–0Pau1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Connacht by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-07 | Pau 30–40 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.