Connacht vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 83.4%draw 2.5%14.1% PerpignanPerpignan 37.5%draw 2.5%60.0% ConnachtConnacht 72.5%draw 2.5%25.0% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Perpignan and 34 Connacht, half of them between 2 Connacht and 22 Connacht, with the middle run at 11 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Connacht 1783, Perpignan 1424 — 360 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht3–0–0Perpignan3 meetings, 2018 to 2024 · Connacht by 13.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | Perpignan 18–31 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2018-12-14 | Perpignan 21–36 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2018-12-08 | Connacht 22–10 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.