Connacht vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 81.2%draw 2.5%16.3% PerpignanConnacht 75.8%draw 2.5%21.7% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Perpignan and 37 Connacht, with the middle run at 12 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 38-26 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Perpignan.
Connacht 1752, Perpignan 1346 — 406 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht3–0–0Perpignan3 meetings, 2018 to 2024 · Connacht by 13.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | Perpignan 18–31 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2018-12-14 | Perpignan 21–36 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2018-12-08 | Connacht 22–10 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.