Connacht vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 64.9%draw 2.5%32.6% Racing 92Racing 92 52.7%draw 2.5%44.8% ConnachtConnacht 54.9%draw 2.5%42.6% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Racing 92 and 24 Connacht, with the middle run at 4 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Racing 92.
Connacht 1752, Racing 92 1707 — 44 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht0–0–2Racing 922 meetings, 2020 to 2025 · Racing 92 by 3.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Connacht 40–43 Racing 92 | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2020-12-13 | Racing 92 26–22 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.