Connacht vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 71.6%draw 2.5%25.9% Racing 92Racing 92 54.5%draw 2.5%43.0% ConnachtConnacht 57.8%draw 2.5%39.7% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Racing 92 and 28 Connacht, half of them between 1 Racing 92 and 17 Connacht, with the middle run at 7 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Connacht 1783, Racing 92 1632 — 152 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht0–0–2Racing 922 meetings, 2020 to 2025 · Racing 92 by 3.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Connacht 40–43 Racing 92 | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2020-12-13 | Racing 92 26–22 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.