Connacht vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 70.9%draw 2.5%26.6% Sale SharksSale Sharks 50.6%draw 2.5%46.9% ConnachtConnacht 58.4%draw 2.5%39.1% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Sale Sharks and 30 Connacht, with the middle run at 7 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Connacht 1752, Sale Sharks 1558 — 193 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–2Sale Sharks3 meetings, 2018 to 2019 · Sale Sharks by 9.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-29 | Sale Sharks 20–10 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2019-01-12 | Connacht 20–18 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2018-10-20 | Sale Sharks 34–13 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.