Connacht vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 76.0%draw 2.5%21.5% Sale SharksSale Sharks 49.8%draw 2.5%47.7% ConnachtConnacht 64.3%draw 2.5%33.2% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Sale Sharks and 30 Connacht, half of them between 1 Connacht and 19 Connacht, with the middle run at 8 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
Connacht 1783, Sale Sharks 1504 — 279 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–2Sale Sharks3 meetings, 2018 to 2019 · Sale Sharks by 9.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-29 | Sale Sharks 20–10 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2019-01-12 | Connacht 20–18 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2018-10-20 | Sale Sharks 34–13 Connacht | European Challenge Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.