Connacht vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 58.0%draw 2.5%39.5% SaracensSaracens 68.1%draw 2.5%29.4% ConnachtConnacht 43.6%draw 2.5%53.9% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Saracens and 22 Connacht, with the middle run at 3 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Saracens.
Connacht 1752, Saracens 1802 — 50 points, favouring Saracens
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht0–0–1Saracens1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Saracens by 19.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-16 | Saracens 55–36 Connacht | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.