Connacht vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 58.7%draw 2.5%38.8% SaracensSaracens 64.5%draw 2.5%33.0% ConnachtConnacht 45.6%draw 2.5%51.9% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Saracens and 19 Connacht, half of them between 6 Saracens and 10 Connacht, with the middle run at 2 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Connacht 1783, Saracens 1861 — 77 points, favouring Saracens
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–1Saracens2 meetings, 2023 to 2026 · Saracens by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Connacht 45–36 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-12-16 | Saracens 55–36 Connacht | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.