Connacht vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 83.7%draw 2.5%13.8% ScarletsScarlets 32.7%draw 2.5%64.8% ConnachtConnacht 77.0%draw 2.5%20.5% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Scarlets and 31 Connacht, half of them between 3 Connacht and 20 Connacht, with the middle run at 10 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-14 on a tight afternoon and 35-25 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Connacht 1783, Scarlets 1273 — 510 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht7–0–8Scarlets15 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Connacht by 0.6 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Connacht by 4.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Connacht 31–14 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-10-04 | Scarlets 23–24 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-03-02 | Connacht 26–10 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2022-10-21 | Connacht 36–14 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2022-02-19 | Scarlets 23–29 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.