Connacht vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 79.3%draw 2.5%18.2% ScarletsScarlets 31.9%draw 2.5%65.6% ConnachtConnacht 73.6%draw 2.5%23.9% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Scarlets and 34 Connacht, with the middle run at 10 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Scarlets.
Connacht 1752, Scarlets 1334 — 417 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht7–0–8Scarlets15 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Connacht by 0.6 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Connacht by 4.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Connacht 31–14 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-10-04 | Scarlets 23–24 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-03-02 | Connacht 26–10 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2022-10-21 | Connacht 36–14 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2022-02-19 | Scarlets 23–29 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.