Connacht vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 73.0%draw 2.5%24.5% SharksSharks 52.3%draw 2.5%45.2% ConnachtConnacht 59.3%draw 2.5%38.2% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Sharks and 29 Connacht, with the middle run at 7 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-15 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Sharks.
Connacht 1752, Sharks 1613 — 139 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht5–0–0Sharks5 meetings, 2023 to 2026 · Connacht by 12.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Connacht 29–12 Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2025-11-29 | Connacht 44–17 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-09-28 | Connacht 36–30 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-11-18 | Sharks 12–13 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-01-07 | Connacht 24–12 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.