Connacht vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 63.4%draw 2.5%34.1% SharksSharks 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% ConnachtConnacht 52.6%draw 2.5%44.9% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Sharks and 22 Connacht, half of them between 4 Sharks and 12 Connacht, with the middle run at 3 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-16 on a tight afternoon and 29-26 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Connacht 1783, Sharks 1746 — 37 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht5–0–1Sharks6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Connacht by 7.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Connacht 29–12 Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2025-11-29 | Connacht 44–17 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-09-28 | Connacht 36–30 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-11-18 | Sharks 12–13 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-01-07 | Connacht 24–12 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.