Connacht vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 60.5%draw 2.5%37.0% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 66.6%draw 2.5%30.9% ConnachtConnacht 45.6%draw 2.5%51.9% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Stade Francais Paris and 26 Connacht, with the middle run at 4 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Connacht 1752, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 24 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–1Stade Francais Paris2 meetings, 2021 to 2022 · Connacht by 10.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-23 | Stade Francais Paris 37–31 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2021-12-12 | Connacht 36–9 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.