Connacht vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 65.7%draw 2.5%31.8% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 57.0%draw 2.5%40.5% ConnachtConnacht 53.3%draw 2.5%44.2% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stade Francais Paris and 24 Connacht, half of them between 3 Stade Francais Paris and 14 Connacht, with the middle run at 4 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Connacht 1783, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 52 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–1Stade Francais Paris2 meetings, 2021 to 2022 · Connacht by 10.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-23 | Stade Francais Paris 37–31 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2021-12-12 | Connacht 36–9 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.