Connacht vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 55.8%draw 2.5%41.7% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 70.0%draw 2.5%27.5% ConnachtConnacht 41.5%draw 2.5%56.0% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stade Toulousain and 20 Connacht, with the middle run at 1 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Connacht 1752, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 112 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–3Stade Toulousain4 meetings, 2016 to 2020 · Stade Toulousain by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-11 | Connacht 7–21 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2019-11-23 | Stade Toulousain 32–17 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2017-01-22 | Stade Toulousain 19–10 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2016-10-15 | Connacht 23–21 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.