Connacht vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 41.3%draw 2.5%56.2% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 73.7%draw 2.5%23.8% ConnachtConnacht 31.8%draw 2.5%65.7% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Stade Toulousain and 15 Connacht, half of them between 9 Stade Toulousain and 6 Connacht, with the middle run at 2 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Connacht are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Connacht 1783, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 209 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht1–0–3Stade Toulousain4 meetings, 2016 to 2020 · Stade Toulousain by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-11 | Connacht 7–21 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2019-11-23 | Stade Toulousain 32–17 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2017-01-22 | Stade Toulousain 19–10 Connacht | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2016-10-15 | Connacht 23–21 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.