Connacht vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% StormersStormers 62.0%draw 2.5%35.5% ConnachtConnacht 46.4%draw 2.5%51.1% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Stormers and 23 Connacht, with the middle run at 3 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Stormers.
Connacht 1752, Stormers 1716 — 36 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht2–0–4Stormers6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Stormers by 6.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Stormers 24–33 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2025-04-19 | Stormers 34–29 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-05-18 | Connacht 12–16 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-05-13 | Stormers 43–25 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2022-09-24 | Stormers 38–15 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Danie Craven Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.