Connacht vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht 55.2%draw 2.5%42.3% StormersStormers 70.3%draw 2.5%27.2% ConnachtConnacht 38.0%draw 2.5%59.5% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stormers and 19 Connacht, half of them between 6 Stormers and 10 Connacht, with the middle run at 2 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 27 and 64 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 18-16 on a tight afternoon and 28-26 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Connacht 1783, Stormers 1845 — 62 points, favouring Stormers
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht2–0–5Stormers7 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Stormers by 7.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Connacht 15–29 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2026-04-18 | Stormers 24–33 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2025-04-19 | Stormers 34–29 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-05-18 | Connacht 12–16 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-05-13 | Stormers 43–25 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.