Connacht vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Connacht 79.8%draw 2.5%17.7% ZebreZebre 23.8%draw 2.5%73.7% ConnachtConnacht 75.5%draw 2.5%22.0% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Zebre and 37 Connacht, with the middle run at 11 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Connacht, negative favours Zebre.
Connacht 1752, Zebre 1309 — 443 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht14–0–3Zebre17 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Connacht by 18.8 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Connacht by 13.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Zebre 12–22 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-12-07 | Connacht 43–12 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-04-20 | Connacht 54–16 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-02-18 | Zebre 34–57 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-05-21 | Connacht 22–20 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.