Connacht vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Connacht host Zebre on Friday 23 October at Dexcom Stadium, Galway, so Connacht are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Connacht 87.9%draw 2.5%9.6% ZebreZebre 18.7%draw 2.5%78.8% ConnachtConnacht 83.9%draw 2.5%13.6% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Connacht v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Connacht wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 36 Connacht, half of them between 4 Connacht and 24 Connacht, with the middle run at 12 Connacht.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 37-25 on an open one.
Why Connacht are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Connacht winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Connacht, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Connacht 1783, Zebre 1071 — 713 points, favouring Connacht
Connacht are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Connacht15–0–3Zebre18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Connacht by 18.7 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Connacht by 16.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Zebre 15–31 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2025-05-17 | Zebre 12–22 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-12-07 | Connacht 43–12 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2024-04-20 | Connacht 54–16 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Dexcom Stadium |
| 2023-02-18 | Zebre 34–57 Connacht | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.