Dragons vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 81.6%draw 2.5%15.9% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 36.1%draw 2.5%61.4% DragonsDragons 72.2%draw 2.5%25.3% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Newcastle Falcons and 35 Dragons, half of them between 2 Dragons and 22 Dragons, with the middle run at 10 Dragons.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Dragons are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Dragons 1330, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 290 points, favouring Dragons
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons3–0–2Newcastle Falcons5 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Dragons by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Dragons 35–12 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-12-15 | Newcastle Falcons 14–22 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2017-12-15 | Dragons 25–27 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2017-10-14 | Newcastle Falcons 32–27 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2015-01-17 | Newcastle Falcons 29–40 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.