Dragons vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 74.3%draw 2.5%23.2% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 44.9%draw 2.5%52.6% DragonsDragons 63.7%draw 2.5%33.8% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Newcastle Falcons and 35 Dragons, with the middle run at 9 Dragons.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Dragons are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Dragons 1369, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 195 points, favouring Dragons
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons3–0–2Newcastle Falcons5 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Dragons by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Dragons 35–12 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-12-15 | Newcastle Falcons 14–22 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2017-12-15 | Dragons 25–27 Newcastle Falcons | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2017-10-14 | Newcastle Falcons 32–27 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2015-01-17 | Newcastle Falcons 29–40 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Kingston Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.