Dragons vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Ospreys host Dragons on Saturday 24 October at St Helen's Rugby and Cricket Ground, Swansea, so Ospreys are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Dragons 49.4%draw 2.5%48.1% OspreysOspreys 74.5%draw 2.5%23.0% DragonsDragons 36.5%draw 2.5%61.0% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Ospreys v Dragons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Ospreys wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Dragons and 25 Ospreys, half of them between level and 15 Ospreys, with the middle run at 6 Ospreys.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Ospreys are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ospreys winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ospreys, a bar to the left helps Dragons.
Ospreys 1567, Dragons 1330 — 237 points, favouring Ospreys
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons6–2–16Ospreys24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ospreys by 6.3 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Ospreys by 7.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Dragons 31–38 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2026-01-31 | Ospreys 19–13 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2025-10-25 | Dragons 19–19 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2025-04-26 | Ospreys 57–24 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2024-09-21 | Dragons 23–21 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.