Dragons vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 49.9%draw 2.5%47.6% OspreysOspreys 71.0%draw 2.5%26.5% DragonsDragons 38.1%draw 2.5%59.4% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Ospreys and 24 Dragons, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Ospreys.
Dragons 1369, Ospreys 1470 — 101 points, favouring Ospreys
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons6–2–13Ospreys21 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Ospreys by 6.0 on average
Last 10: 4–1–5 · Ospreys by 5.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Dragons 19–19 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2025-04-26 | Ospreys 57–24 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2024-09-21 | Dragons 23–21 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-05-18 | Ospreys 26–13 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 2023-11-18 | Dragons 20–5 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.