Dragons vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 34.1%draw 2.5%63.4% UlsterUlster 73.7%draw 2.5%23.8% DragonsDragons 28.6%draw 2.5%68.9% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Ulster and 14 Dragons, with the middle run at 3 Ulster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Ulster.
Dragons 1369, Ulster 1633 — 264 points, favouring Ulster
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons1–1–14Ulster16 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Ulster by 12.6 on average
Last 10: 0–1–9 · Ulster by 13.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | Ulster 42–21 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2025-03-22 | Dragons 30–34 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-03-02 | Ulster 49–26 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-04-14 | Ulster 40–19 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2022-02-20 | Dragons 0–12 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.