Dragons vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 46.8%draw 2.5%50.7% UlsterUlster 75.6%draw 2.5%21.9% DragonsDragons 35.1%draw 2.5%62.4% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Ulster and 17 Dragons, half of them between 8 Ulster and 8 Dragons, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 18-18 on a tight afternoon and 28-28 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Dragons 1330, Ulster 1582 — 252 points, favouring Ulster
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons1–1–14Ulster16 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Ulster by 12.6 on average
Last 10: 0–1–9 · Ulster by 13.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | Ulster 42–21 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2025-03-22 | Dragons 30–34 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-03-02 | Ulster 49–26 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-04-14 | Ulster 40–19 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2022-02-20 | Dragons 0–12 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.