Edinburgh vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 87.1%draw 2.5%10.4% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 33.8%draw 2.5%63.7% EdinburghEdinburgh 76.1%draw 2.5%21.4% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Newcastle Falcons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 39 Edinburgh, half of them between 4 Edinburgh and 26 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 13 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-26 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Newcastle Falcons.
Edinburgh 1528, Newcastle Falcons 1040 — 488 points, favouring Edinburgh
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh2–0–0Newcastle Falcons2 meetings, 2018 to 2018 · Edinburgh by 15.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-16 | Newcastle Falcons 8–21 Edinburgh | European Champions Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2018-12-07 | Edinburgh 31–13 Newcastle Falcons | European Champions Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.