Edinburgh vs Newcastle Falcons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 80.7%draw 2.5%16.8% Newcastle FalconsNewcastle Falcons 37.7%draw 2.5%59.8% EdinburghEdinburgh 70.5%draw 2.5%27.0% Newcastle FalconsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Newcastle Falcons and 36 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 10 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Newcastle Falcons.
Edinburgh 1496, Newcastle Falcons 1174 — 322 points, favouring Edinburgh
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh2–0–0Newcastle Falcons2 meetings, 2018 to 2018 · Edinburgh by 15.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-16 | Newcastle Falcons 8–21 Edinburgh | European Champions Cup | Kingston Park |
| 2018-12-07 | Edinburgh 31–13 Newcastle Falcons | European Champions Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.