Edinburgh vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 68.5%draw 2.5%29.0% OspreysOspreys 62.7%draw 2.5%34.8% EdinburghEdinburgh 52.6%draw 2.5%44.9% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Ospreys, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Ospreys and 25 Edinburgh, half of them between 2 Ospreys and 14 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 5 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 27 and 65 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-15 on a tight afternoon and 30-25 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Ospreys.
Edinburgh 1528, Ospreys 1567 — 39 points, favouring Ospreys
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh6–0–7Ospreys13 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Edinburgh by 1.3 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Edinburgh by 1.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | Edinburgh 19–17 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-10-26 | Ospreys 22–13 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2024-03-01 | Edinburgh 19–15 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2023-04-15 | Edinburgh 45–21 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2022-01-29 | Ospreys 23–19 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.