Edinburgh vs Ospreys
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 58.2%draw 2.5%39.3% OspreysOspreys 53.6%draw 2.5%43.9% EdinburghEdinburgh 51.1%draw 2.5%46.4% OspreysEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Ospreys and 28 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 3 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Ospreys.
Edinburgh 1496, Ospreys 1470 — 26 points, favouring Edinburgh
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh6–0–6Ospreys12 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Edinburgh by 1.8 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Edinburgh by 0.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | Edinburgh 19–17 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-10-26 | Ospreys 22–13 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Electric Brewery Field |
| 2024-03-01 | Edinburgh 19–15 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2023-04-15 | Edinburgh 45–21 Ospreys | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2022-01-29 | Ospreys 23–19 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Swansea.com Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.