Edinburgh vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 42.2%draw 2.5%55.3% UlsterUlster 66.2%draw 2.5%31.3% EdinburghEdinburgh 36.6%draw 2.5%60.9% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Ulster and 16 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 2 Ulster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Ulster.
Edinburgh 1496, Ulster 1633 — 137 points, favouring Ulster
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh5–0–10Ulster15 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ulster by 4.5 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Ulster by 6.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Edinburgh 19–40 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2025-05-16 | Edinburgh 47–17 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2023-12-02 | Ulster 24–27 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-04-21 | Ulster 28–14 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2020-11-30 | Edinburgh 14–43 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.