Edinburgh vs Ulster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 63.2%draw 2.5%34.3% UlsterUlster 65.7%draw 2.5%31.8% EdinburghEdinburgh 47.3%draw 2.5%50.2% UlsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Ulster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Ulster and 23 Edinburgh, half of them between 5 Ulster and 12 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 3 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 65 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-16 on a tight afternoon and 29-26 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Edinburgh 1528, Ulster 1582 — 54 points, favouring Ulster
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh6–0–11Ulster17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Ulster by 4.0 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Ulster by 5.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Ulster 29–34 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2026-03-13 | Edinburgh 19–40 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2025-05-16 | Edinburgh 47–17 Ulster | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2023-12-02 | Ulster 24–27 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
| 2023-04-21 | Ulster 28–14 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Affidea Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.